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13
Jun 2019

Last Friday marked the release of X-Men: Dark Phoenix. The film tells the story of Jean Grey, played by Sophie Turner, and her battle with the Phoenix who intends on taking her over. During its opening weekend, it earned around 33$ million, which is lower than its predecessor X-Men: Apocalypse at 65.7$ million. X-Men: First Class earned 55.1$ million while the second sequel, X-Men: Days of Future Past, earned 90.8$ million. The last film of the franchise earned an approval rate of 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 43 on Metacritic. The consensus on Rotten Tomatoes was that “Dark Phoenix ends an era of the X-Men franchise by taking a second stab at adapting a classic comics arc – with deeply disappointing results.”[1]

The weekend’s top twelve combined to outperform the same weekend last year by more than 43%, which means the year-to-year gap continues to close, but the weekend’s new releases both struggled mightily. Universal and Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 was unable to even deliver half of the opening the first film delivered just a few years ago, while Fox’s Dark Phoenix entered the weekend as the worst reviewed film in the X-Men franchise ever and, predictably, delivered the lowest opening weekend of the franchise.

In second place things don’t get any better as Disney’s release of Fox’s Dark Phoenix could only manage an estimated $33 million debut, making it the first film in the X-Men franchise to fail to deliver a $50+ million opening. In fact, like Pets 2 the film’s opening is well off even the studio’s modest, $40-50 million expectations and over $30 million shy of the disappointing, $65.7 million opening for X-Men: Apocalypse three years ago.

The average multiplier for films in the X-Men franchise is 2.5x, which would suggest we’re looking at an $82.5 million domestic run for Dark Phoenix, which would make it the first film in the franchise to finish below $100 million domestically. The film received a “B-” CinemaScore from opening day audiences, which is a grade below the “A-” score for X-Men: Apocalypse, as audiences seemed to agree with the negative critical reception. The audience was 57% male with 61% of the opening weekend crowd coming in aged 25 years or older.

Internationally, Dark Phoenix debuted in all but Japan this weekend, bringing in an estimated $107 million, led by a $45.6 million opening in China. Additional openings include South Korea ($5.7m), Mexico ($5.0m), UK ($4.9m), France ($3.8m), Russia ($3.4m), Brazil ($2.9m), Philippines ($2.4m), Taiwan ($2.3m) and India ($2.3m). The film will open in Japan on June 21.

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Mar 2018

In second is Fox’s Red Sparrow, an adaptation of the first novel in Jason Matthews’ trilogy starring Jennifer Lawrence and directed by Francis Lawrence. Debuting in 3,056 locations, the film brought in an estimated $17 million, which is in line with the studio’s expectations while a bit behind Mojo’s pre-weekend forecast. The film received a “B” CinemaScore and played to an opening weekend audience that was 53% female vs. 47% male and of 79% of its overall audience was over the age of 25.

Red Sparrow also brought in an estimated $26.5 million internationally this weekend. Leading the way was Taiwan with $2.4 million followed by Spain ($2m), Italy ($1.5m) and Hong Kong ($762K). Upcoming markets include Japan (Mar 30), France (Apr 4) and Russia (May 31).

Looking ahead, it’s tough to determine just how well this film will perform based on pre-weekend comparisons, which had us looking at Atomic Blonde and Ghost in the Shell, both of which debuted with over $18 million and, like Sparrow, received a “B” CinemaScore. Neither of those films, however, played to a majority female audience with Atomic’s 51% male audience being the closest while Ghost in the Shell joined Sparrow in playing to an older audience at 76% over the age of 25. Averaging the two films out would point toward a $45 million domestic run for Sparrow, which seems like a reasonable high-end at this point. Source

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Sep 2017

“Third place went to Darren Aronofsky’s mother!, which not only opened with a supremely disappointing $7.5 million from 2,368 locations, but became one of only 19 films to ever receive an “F” CinemaScore suggesting a 60+% drop next weekend and a short-lived theatrical experience. The overall audience was 44% male vs. 56% female, of which 18% were under the age of 25. For star Jennifer Lawrence this is her worst wide debut ever, falling almost $5 million shy of her much-maligned September 2012 thriller House at the End of the Street, which debuted with $12.2 million despite an 11% rating on RottenTomatoes compared to the 68% rating for mother!

Internationally, mother! opened in 16 markets where it brought in an estimated $6 million including $1.3 million in France, $1.1 million in both the UK and Russia, $799k in Germany and $584k in Australia. Upcoming releases included Brazil (9/21), Mexico (9/22), Italy (9/28), Spain (9/29), Korea (10/19) and Japan (1/19).” Source

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